Based on current climatic conditions and activity in 2024 to date, this report forecasts:

• Fewer tropical storms (TS) are forecasted to form in the Northwest Pacific Basin (NWP) and the South China Sea (SCS) in 2024, with a total number of around 22-24. Meanwhile, the number of strong typhoons (STY) is expected to be slightly below the long-term climatic average (LTCA). 6-8 TSs are forecasted to make landfall in China, which is close to LTCA.
• The number of tropical cyclones (TC) expected to impact overall China and South China in 2024 are forecasted to reach 13-15 and 9-11 respectively, slightly higher than the LTCA. East China and Shanghai are expecting a normal year, with the total number of TC forecasted to reach around 9-11 and 2 respectively. The subtropical high is expected to remain stronger than average during summer before gradually weakening and retreating eastward in late summer and early autumn. It is important to pay close attention to potential autumn typhoons.

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