Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecast North West Pacific Ocean and South China Sea | April 2021

Based on current climatic conditions and activity in 2021 to date, this report forecasts:

  • The formation of 24-27 tropical storms (TS) and/or stronger tropical cyclones/typhoons (TC) in the North Western Pacific Basin (NWP) and the South China Sea (SCS) in 2021.
  • The number of TCs that become strong typhoons (STY) will stay below the long term climatic average (LTCA).
  • 13-15 TCs are forecast to impact China in 2021 which is in line with the LTCA. However, TCs impacting South and East China are forecast to be more active, of which;
    • 13-14 are forecast to impact South China.
    • 11-13 are forecast to impact East China.
  • 7-9 TCs will make landfall over China which is slightly above average.